Trust in NATO's security guarantees is no longer as unequivocal as it once was. Image: ChatGPT 4o AI.
29.4.2025
Alliance Under Scrutiny – Confidence in NATO’s Security Guarantees Has Weakened During Trump’s Second Term
The clear majority of Finns still view Finland’s NATO membership positively, but support has declined from the peak levels seen during the early stages of membership.
Read the full analysis here.
Key findings
- Two out of three (66%) Finns have a positive attitude towards Finland’s NATO membership. Over six months, support for NATO has decreased by five percentage points.
- More than half (53%) now believe that NATO membership does not guarantee that other countries would ultimately assist Finland in a real crisis. Confidence in NATO support has seen a significant (-17 percentage points) decline compared to the previous survey conducted in autumn 2023.
- Only one-third (32%) believe that NATO’s security guarantees are such a powerful deterrent that no one would dare to challenge a member state.
- Three in ten (29%) believe it would be in Finland’s interest to engage in the deepest possible cooperation with the United States, regardless of the issue. A larger share (42%) rejects such deep cooperation.
How the Survey Was Conducted
The results are based on responses from 2,070 individuals. The margin of error at the national level is 2–3 percentage points in either direction. Data was collected between March 12 and March 24, 2025. Respondents represent the entire population of Finland aged 18 to 79 (excluding Åland). The data was gathered through Taloustutkimus Oy’s online panel, with the research sample formed through stratified random sampling. The data has been weighted to represent the population by age, gender, region, education, occupation or status, industry, and political affiliation. The statistical analysis and result graphics were prepared by Pentti Kiljunen (Yhdyskuntatutkimus Oy).